Steel prices finally reached the bottom of the rebound in late July and continued the rally until mid-August. By August 19, Shanghai steel prices reached the highest point of this round of 4020 yuan/ton, which was 4.6% higher than the price in the same period in July and 9.8% higher than the price at the bottom of mid-April. Subsequently, due to the light turnover, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the price appeared to be consolidating. On the whole, the steel price in August was in a turbulent trend.
However, industry analysts believe that steel prices are expected to resume upwards in mid-September in view of relatively positive demand expectations and a significant upward shift in the cost average.
The building materials inventory was lightened by 14.96% in a single month.
According to the monitoring data of the Nisshin Shinkansen line, terminal purchases in August increased by 13.43% from the previous month, with demand for terminal stockpiles taking the lead, while the middle handed-down trade was also active. At the same time, domestic construction steel (4268, 20.00, 0.47%) inventory continued to be lightened in August. The monthly lighten-up position was 14.96%, and the lighten-up position was significantly increased from the previous month. Although the amount of terminal purchases gradually declined after mid-August, downstream users' early stocking also laid down hidden dangers for late demand overdrafts, but it also reflected the market's bullish attitude towards the market outlook.
However, it is worth noting that during the current round of price rebound, only rebar and high-line stocks have apparently lightened up, and the remaining steel products such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium-thick plate stockpiles still maintain their positions. Such indications, on the one hand, indicate that the steel mills' production cuts are mainly concentrated in the relatively low-end construction steel sector. On the other hand, it also shows that the current supply pressure is still greater than the demand level. The industry believes that the objective existence of inventory risk needs to attract the attention of the market.
While demand is partially released, the average cost of steel products will continue to move upwards, which will form a supportive role for steel prices. Judging from the monitoring data, 63.5% taste of CPI has been continuously stabilized at USD 160/ton for several days. This price not only rebounded by 30% from the previous price, but also slightly higher than the domestic steel mills and the three major mines. The three-quarter agreement price. In addition, the cost of funds has also continued to decline. The industry said that traders are currently in a state of “not badâ€. This has also become an important condition for the steel market to continue to have funds to purchase goods at the bottom.
September production is expected to continue to expand
With regard to the trend of the steel market in September, the industry believes that with the rapid rebound of the steel market in the previous period, steel mills' production capacity will quickly recover. September production is expected to continue to expand. With the increase in supply, the degree of release of demand and policy coordination are critical to the direction of the steel market. "No new low, difficult to record high" has become a more mainstream view.
At the demand level, the monitoring data showed that the terminal demand in August was 13.43% higher than that of the previous month. The analysis indicated that the demand overdraft situation was not serious. At present, investment in fixed assets, especially real estate investment, remains relatively high. In September, it was the traditional peak season for demand. Therefore, demand release should be expected to be relatively positive.
According to the supply situation, according to the latest Xunbao published by the China Iron and Steel Association recently, in August, China Iron and Steel Association members had an average of 14.13 million tons of crude steel, and the national crude steel production was 1.719 million tons, an increase from the end of July. 77,000 tons. This is also a recurrence of the daily output of crude steel after a consecutive decline of 3 months. As the production capacity of steel mills has recovered rapidly in August and the export of steel products has continued to decline, the rate of late inventory digestion may slow down. The mutual restraint between supply and demand will also, to a certain extent, contain the rise of steel prices.
The industry believes that due to the recent policy bearish dominance, downstream demand is mostly waiting to wait for the main, so in early September, the market is still digesting the early increase and policy risk-based, steel prices may fluctuate lower, but the decline is limited. With the improvement of the later capital market, the recovery of the spot market confidence, and the normal release of terminal demand, in the middle and late September, there is still the possibility of returning to the uptrend, but can it reach or break through the August high, and the release of demand. And the cooperation of policies is extremely crucial.