Recently, at the Ship Finance Forum held during the Hamburg Maritime Exhibition, Dirk Lammerskotter, President of the HSH CorporateFinance Shipping Department, the world's largest ship financing bank, the business spin-off and risk management consulting firm of the Northern Bank of Germany, said that it is currently a new contract for German shipowners. A good time to ship and update capacity. The reason is that compared with the new ship type launched by the current shipbuilding enterprises, the ships in the existing fleet are not competitive in terms of fuel consumption and design concept; at present, the price of new ships is at a low level, and the payment terms are very favorable to the shipowners. The new ship is expected to be delivered just as the shipping market recovers. In addition, he also predicted whether the current renewal of the fleet will become a watershed for the future development of the shipowners. In fact, ship owners and institutions have repeatedly expressed this view in the near future. Wang Yougui, president of the Canadian company Sisban, once said that Chinese shipowners are more conservative. When the market is at a low point, they often call for not to book a ship. In fact, the current ship price is at a low point. It is precisely the low cost and high efficiency of the shipowners. A good time for a new ship type. The existing ship type does not have a competitive advantage in the future. The world economic recovery is weak, the European debt crisis has not yet been lifted, and the rapid growth of the fleet caused by the booming ship market from 2003 to 2008 has led to the current downturn in the shipping market. At the same time, fuel prices remain high. This has made the shipowner's financial situation worse. 1. The continued sluggish shipping market is affected by the continued growth of new capacity and the slowdown in freight demand growth. Since the second half of 2011, the global shipping market has once again shrunk and the freight rate has been declining. In the first half of 2012, the market downturn has further intensified. . Affected by factors such as weak iron ore import demand from Chinese steel companies, bulk carrier freight rates continued to fall. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI), which reflects the combined level of dry bulk cargo, was only 647 points at the beginning of February, hitting 26 points. The historical low in the past year, the index is still below 700 points. Due to the successive delivery of newly-built large container ships and the slowdown in economic growth in Europe and the United States, the freight rate of container ships has turned down again after a brief rise. The New ConTex index issued by the Hamburg Ship Brokers Association is only 380 points, compared with 2008. The peak fell by 62.8%. Although the oil tanker market was once affected by the Iranian oil embargo and other factors, the freight rate rose, but the freight demand was quickly swallowed up by the new capacity. The freight rate of the tanker was first raised and then suppressed. The BDTI, which reflects the comprehensive freight rate of the tanker, is only 631 points. Compared with the peak in 2008, it fell by 69.5%. 2. Fuel costs continue to rise In the new century, especially since 2004, with the continued rise in international oil prices, fuel prices have soared to $750/ton, and are still at a high level of $650/ton. Under the influence of rising fuel prices, the proportion of fuel costs in shipowners' operating costs has been rising. According to the Norwegian Classification Society (DNV), in 2011, fuel costs accounted for 78% of the single voyage cost of container ships. At the same time, they accounted for bulk carriers, super large oil tankers (VLCC), and product tankers. The cost of voyage is 65%, 63% and 58%. According to statistics, in the past three years, the proportion of fuel costs in COSCO's shipping business costs has increased from 17.5% to 26%. Among them, the proportion of fuel costs in container shipping has increased from 20.8% in 2009 to 27.8% in 2011, while the cost of fuel for bulk carrier transportation has increased from 13.7% to 23.3%. In addition, the fuel cost of China Merchants Steam has increased from 23.8% to 38.1%. 3. The shipowner's operating conditions are worrying. The shipowner's operating situation is extremely severe due to the sluggish shipping market and high fuel costs. The shipowners engaged in the operation of the three major ship types are almost in a state of total loss. Affected by the continued sluggishness of the shipping market, Japan’s veteran bulk carrier shipping company, Sanguang Steamship, was responsible for a huge debt of US$1.9 billion, which ended in bankruptcy due to insolvency. The world's major liner companies suffered losses in large areas. In the first half of the year, only OOCL achieved profitability, but profits fell 33% from the same period last year. Maersk lost $372 million in the first half of the year, compared with $300 million in the same period last year. Danish tanker shipowner TORM is forced to restructure its debt under the supervision of creditors and is responding by cutting costs, finding investors and suspending new ships. The performance of major shipping companies in China has also fallen sharply. In the first half of the year, China COSCO lost 4.87 billion yuan, an increase of 79.72% compared with the same period in 2011. China Shipping Container Lines lost 1.28 billion yuan, a loss of 650 million yuan over the same period last year. Although the net profit of China Merchants Steamship in the first half of the year was 82.72 million yuan, it also fell sharply by 58.45%. In the fierce market competition situation, in view of the current fleet situation of the shipowners, most of the ship types are old ships designed to be outdated, even if the ship is delivered during the booming period, because the shipbuilding enterprises are busy building ships and have no energy to engage in ships. The optimization of performance makes these ships not only have high fuel consumption, but some ship types still do not meet the requirements of new rules and new specifications that have been or will come into effect, making them have high operating costs in the future, and there is no advantage in the fierce market competition. The current people in the shipping industry have proposed the renewal of the fleet, which is a good prescription for the current low competitiveness of shipowners. Therefore, in the current sluggish market situation, visionary and capable shipowners must abandon the one-sided pessimistic understanding of the supply and demand situation in the shipping market, focusing on the future, and improving the capacity structure and enhancing the competitiveness of the fleet to a strategic height. The new ship has been built to the best time in the post-crisis era. The ship has a typical life cycle of 20 to 30 years, with typical investment characteristics. Although the current ship price has a large decline compared with the booming period of the ship market, some ship types have fallen by more than 50%, but in terms of the law of value, whether it is from the historical ship price trend or from the factors affecting the ship price The analysis of the trend, the ship price can not deviate from its value for a long time, there is no room for further decline. 1. The ship price is already at a historically low level. At present, the Clarkson new ship price index has fallen to 128 points, the lowest level since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. Most ship types have fallen by 50% compared with the pre-international financial crisis. The price level is the same as in 2004. According to the calculation of the China Shipbuilding Industry Market Center, the current three major ship types are below the level of the 1997 Asian financial crisis in terms of US dollars. In the case of RMB, the effects of exchange rate changes and inflation are ignored. Its price is generally lower than the level after 1997. 2. Factors affecting ship prices do not support lower ship prices. From the main factors affecting ship prices, ship prices are less likely to fall again. First, with the increase in the dismantling of old ships and the continuous reduction of hand-held orders, the growth rate of capacity will slow down in the future, and with the recovery of the world economy, the growth rate of international shipping volume is expected to accelerate, and the efficiency of ship transportation in the future. The degree of deterioration will slow down significantly in the next two years. Second, part of the shipbuilding capacity has been or will be withdrawn in the near future, and the pressure on supply and demand in the shipbuilding market will ease. Many shipyards in China are in a state of suspension and semi-discontinuation, while Ningbo Blue Sky Shipbuilding, Hengfu Ship, Taizhou Jingang Shipbuilding, Dalian Oriental Seiko Shipyard, Nantong Huigang Shipyard, etc. have declared bankruptcy or bankruptcy application; the first in the UK The London-listed shipping company Orient Group has also withdrawn from the market, and recently issued a notice of capital restructuring or asset resale; Yangzijiang Shipyard has taken many measures such as “close, stop, merge, transfer and protect†to compress existing shipbuilding. Capacity. South Korea’s world-class heavy industry, Sanhu shipbuilding, and Korean shipbuilding are on the verge of bankruptcy. Shipbuilding in the 21st century has entered bankruptcy liquidation procedures, and the country’s oldest shipbuilding company, Hanjin Heavy Industry’s local shipyard, has withdrawn from the merchant shipbuilding sector. Into the ship repair market, and involved in the ship modification business; South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industry, Daewoo Shipbuilding Ocean transferred its production capacity to the construction of offshore equipment. In addition, although Japan did not significantly expand shipbuilding capacity during the ship boom period, it has recently accelerated the pace of compression capacity. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe Shipyard has withdrawn from the construction of merchant ships, while Mitsui Shipbuilding plans to reduce its shipbuilding capacity by 40% and reduce it to the 2000 level. Third, the prices of raw materials such as ship plates have stabilized at a low level. At present, iron ore suppliers have begun to cut investment and supply is clearly controlled. BHP Billiton said it will scrutinize new or expanded production projects this year and cut the $80 billion expansion plan announced a year ago. Fortescue announced a $1.6 billion investment cut to reduce its annual production capacity of 155 million tons to 115 million tons in June 2013. In addition, the revenue of steel mills continued to deteriorate, and large steel companies at home and abroad have begun to reduce production and stop production, reducing the supply of steel. At the end of August, Japan’s Nippon Steel decided to stop production and maintenance of its large branch mill and start production reduction. South Korea's Dongkuk Steel Co., Ltd. closed its heavy plate plant with an annual output of 1 million tons in Pohang. Hyundai Steel also said it will adjust the construction plan of the heavy plate plant. Fourth, the pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB and the Korean won against the US dollar still exists, and to a certain extent, it supports the price of the ship in US dollars. At present, although the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is in a two-way wave dynamic trend, in the long run, the appreciation pressure of the RMB still exists. Since the second half of last year, the tendency of the Korean won to rise against the US dollar is very obvious. In the future, the economic recovery of South Korea will have a greater thrust on its exchange rate. 3. Shipyards will not continue to receive orders at a loss. As the price of new ships continues to fall, the profitability of shipyards has fallen sharply. Shipyards have begun to actively adjust their orders, which will help stabilize the price of new ships. In the first half of the year, the operating performance of the seven major shipping companies in South Korea fell sharply. The net profit of Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding Ocean, Hyundai Sanhu Heavy Industries and Hyundai Taipu Shipbuilding declined sharply, with the highest drop of 73%, while STX Shipbuilding Ocean and Hanjin Heavy industry suffered losses. In the second quarter, among the six major shipping companies, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsui Shipbuilding, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Sumitomo Heavy Industries, IHIMU and IWC Shipbuilding, except for Mitsui Shipbuilding, the other five operating profits all declined, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries have lost money. Many of China's shipyards have received orders for orders, and some shipyards have suspended orders. For example, Jiangsu New Century Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. insisted on boycotting ultra-low-cost orders in the past year; Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's internal order-taking principle is no longer accepting orders that exceed the company's endurance. There are many new ship types to choose from. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, governments and enterprises in various countries have increased their investment in R&D, launched many new technologies, and developed many new types of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly ships. The economic indicators are obviously better than 15 years. Ships ordered even five years ago. The Japanese government and shipbuilding companies attach great importance to technology research and development, and continue to increase R&D investment in the field of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly ship technology, and rely on new energy-saving technologies and new ship types to undertake orders. The R&D investment of the shipbuilding departments of 10 Japanese shipbuilding companies has increased for five consecutive years. In fiscal 2011, the total investment was 12.6 billion yen (about 160 million U.S. dollars), an increase of 18% year-on-year, a record high in the past 10 years. Since the beginning of this year, IWC has launched a new generation of energy-saving G-series bulk carriers. By optimizing the crotch and installing energy-saving devices, the average daily fuel consumption of 80,000 dwt bulk carriers has been reduced to 30 tons; Kawasaki Heavy Industries has developed 9000 TEU dual-fuel power. The container ship has obtained the basic certification of the Norwegian Classification Society (DNV); the 13,000 TEU dual-fuel power container ship developed by IHIMU has been approved by the German Lloyd's Register of Shipping (GL) and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40%; The 35,000-tonne bulk carrier launched by Oshima Shipbuilding has reduced fuel consumption by 20% and emissions by 20% compared with the same type of ship 10 years ago. The famous village ship launches the 34,000 DWT bulk carrier "High Bulk34E", which is 32,000. The upgraded version of the ton bulk carrier not only increased the cargo load, but also reduced fuel consumption by 10%; Sasebo Heavy Industries launched 77,000 DWT "New Generation Sasebo Panamax" bulk carrier, which is an upgrade of 75,000 DWT bulk carriers The version not only increases the cargo load, but also reduces the daily fuel consumption to less than 30 tons. As the world's largest bulk carrier construction country, China's various shipbuilding companies and R&D institutes have taken joint design and independent research and development measures in recent years, and have made great progress in energy-saving and environmentally-friendly ship types. Some ship-type energy-saving effects are even better than those of similar Japanese ships. For example, Shanghai Ship Design and Research Institute launched the “Dolphin†series of handysize bulk carriers of 64,000 DWT and 38,000 DWT, of which 64,000 DWT bulk carriers were upgraded ships of 57,000 DWT, and the cargo capacity increased. 11%, cabin capacity increased by 7.6%, daily fuel consumption decreased from 34.5 tons to 24.9 tons, annual carbon emissions decreased by 21%, ship energy efficiency design index (EEDI) was lower than the baseline value of 18%; 38,000 dwt bulk carrier day The fuel consumption is only 17.7 tons, and the EEDI is 25% below the baseline value. In another example, Pacific Shipbuilding and Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries launched the Type 82 bulk carrier with a daily fuel consumption of only 28 tons, which is 12.5% ​​lower than that of the same type of old ship. Some forward-thinking shipowners have already faced the extreme downturn in the shipping market in action . Some shipowners have taken the courage of “strong men’s broken wristsâ€, actively ordering new ships and optimizing the fleet structure. 1. Speeding up the dismantling speed of old ships In view of the downturn in the market situation, shipowners have increased the efforts of ship dismantling and actively contributed to “going to capacityâ€. From January to July this year, the global shipbreaking volume reached 33.7 million DWT. It is estimated that the annual dismantling capacity will reach 55 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. In addition, the age of the dismantling tends to be younger. According to Lloyd's intelligence statistics, the average age of shipbreaking in the first half of this year has dropped to 20.7 years. Many ships have been dismantled for less than 20 years, and in 2009, the average dismantling age was 32 years. Merchant Marine Mitsui has dismantled four super large oil tankers (VLCC) built in 1995 and beyond, with a minimum age of less than 15 years. Recently, Nippon Yusen has also dismantled a 15-year-old and 17-year-old Capesize bulk carrier and said it will dismantle more ships. 2. Proactively ordering new ships In view of the current low price of new ships, the shipyard's new ship type has excellent performance, and many large shipowners have begun to order new ships to seize market opportunities. Since the beginning of this year, the Norwegian Fredriksen Group has ordered 14 refined oil tankers, 4 LNG vessels and 2 LPG vessels; the British shipowner Zodiac has ordered 10 container ships and 2 vehicles. Transport ship (PCTC); Swedish shipowner Stena ordered 6+6 50,000 DWT product oil tankers at GSI, and Taiwan Evergreen Marine ordered 10 13,800 TEU containers at Hyundai Heavy Industries through Greek ship owner Lemos ferry. In addition, some shipowners have disclosed clear plans for new ship bookings. The Chilean South American Steamship Company (CSAV) is planning to build 10 10,000 TEU container ships, while Taiwan's Yangming Shipping plans to order five 14,000 to 16,000 TEU container ships. In addition, in order to build a competitive fleet, the Korea Electric Power Company is also in the process of ordering seven 150,000 DWT bulk carriers. Despite the uncertainties and unstable factors in the current world economic recovery, the shipping and shipbuilding market situation is worrying, but it is gratifying that under the guidance of the laws of the market economy, the shipping market “goes to capacity†and the shipbuilding market “de-capacity†The adjustment is progressing steadily. With the gradual improvement of the market supply and demand relationship, the development of the shipping market in the future will return to rationality. This is an era when the price of new ships is low and the performance of new ships is excellent. The powerful and far-sighted shipowners should focus on the future, abandon the tangled entanglement, and make bold decisions to build new ships. Buffett said: I am greedy when others are timid. Now, it is time for the shipowners to “greedyâ€.
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