On December 1, Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly higher, and the shocks fell. The contract in recent months ended slightly lower. Industry analysts believe that if LME three-month aluminum is supported at $2,700, domestic aluminum prices are expected to rebound with the support of spot premiums.
On Friday, December 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHE) aluminum main 701 contract opened at 20580 yuan and closed at 20340 yuan, down by 40 yuan. The spot 612 contract closed at 20,710 yuan, down by 60 yuan.
Shanghai Aluminum futures trended downwards, and in the short term, they should pay close attention to policy factors.
Overnight LME three-month aluminum rose 35.5 US dollars to close at 2,735 US dollars / ton; on the 1st, SHFE aluminum 0702 contract fell 120 yuan to close at 1,990 yuan / ton.
According to newer data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in October, China's primary aluminum output was 81.01 million tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year; from January to October, the cumulative production of China's primary aluminum was 7.58 million tons, an increase of 18% over the same period of last year. The China Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's primary aluminum production in 2006 was 9.2 million tons, up 24.2% year-on-year; in 2006, China's copper production was 2.95 million tons, up 16.6% year-on-year. Although China's copper and aluminum production both increased by double digits in 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission did not give China copper and aluminum demand and growth estimates in 2006.
Deutsche Bank believes that the huge increase in China’s trade account surplus caused by the undervalued exchange rate, strong foreign demand, and insufficient domestic consumption will increase the pressure on US dollar adjustments and aggravate domestic excess liquidity. Domestic liquidity surplus will bring The financial market and the real estate market bubble; if China's balance of payments surplus continues to expand, then the RMB exchange rate will face the risk of sudden adjustment in the future, the consequence of which is that the relevant economies, especially the Asian economy and international commodity markets will be greatly affected.
In the LME market, three-month aluminum fell out of the $2,700, continuing to rise; the depreciation of the dollar pushed gold to rise strongly, and underlying metals were supported. The bad news in the US housing market cooling and slowing car sales are being digested by the market. The sound growth of the US economy is loud and loud. In terms of copper futures, Grup Mexico expects its copper production in 2006 to be equal to the 2007 level of 785,000 tons, with a significant increase in 2007. In the SHFE market, aluminum is expected to rise first and then decline. The central government will hold an economic work conference in the near future. Strengthening and improving macro-control will remain the focus of future economic management.
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