In the first quarter of 2011, the Japanese coking coal contract price rose 8%, and domestic coking coal prices are expected to rise strongly. It is understood that the price of coking coal in 2011 is about to rise, and the expected increase rate is more than 10%, which constitutes a substantial good for domestic coking coal listed companies. Future coking coal prices may continue to exceed expectations.
The industry believes that the main driving factors for the price increase of coking coal are mainly the following aspects. First, domestic demand began to rebound: At present, the destocking of the domestic steel industry has basically ended. With the gradual withdrawal of the limited production mechanism, the domestic steel industry has recently resumed production and the operating rate has steadily rebounded.
Second, due to the scarcity of high-quality coking coal, the increase in new supply of domestic coking coal is limited. With the increasing demand for energy-saving, emission-reduction and cost-reduction in the steel industry, large-scale blast furnaces are the first choice and must-have for modern steel companies. According to the analysis of steel experts, high-quality coking coal may become the next limit to the Chinese steel industry after iron ore. Development of resource bottlenecks. Third, due to the substantial increase in the import volume of coking coal, we forecast 44 million tons of coking coal imports in 2011, an increase of 18.92% year-on-year. Due to Australia's dominant position in the global coking coal trade (64%), the appreciation of the Australian dollar and Australian resource tax reforms will promote international coking coal prices. At present, foreign coking coal prices have been higher than domestic coal prices with the same quality. Because of the higher degree of marketization of coking coal and the expansion of foreign dependence, the transmission mechanism will play a role.
The industry believes that the main driving factors for the price increase of coking coal are mainly the following aspects. First, domestic demand began to rebound: At present, the destocking of the domestic steel industry has basically ended. With the gradual withdrawal of the limited production mechanism, the domestic steel industry has recently resumed production and the operating rate has steadily rebounded.
Second, due to the scarcity of high-quality coking coal, the increase in new supply of domestic coking coal is limited. With the increasing demand for energy-saving, emission-reduction and cost-reduction in the steel industry, large-scale blast furnaces are the first choice and must-have for modern steel companies. According to the analysis of steel experts, high-quality coking coal may become the next limit to the Chinese steel industry after iron ore. Development of resource bottlenecks. Third, due to the substantial increase in the import volume of coking coal, we forecast 44 million tons of coking coal imports in 2011, an increase of 18.92% year-on-year. Due to Australia's dominant position in the global coking coal trade (64%), the appreciation of the Australian dollar and Australian resource tax reforms will promote international coking coal prices. At present, foreign coking coal prices have been higher than domestic coal prices with the same quality. Because of the higher degree of marketization of coking coal and the expansion of foreign dependence, the transmission mechanism will play a role.