The way out for octanol, the balance between supply and demand is broken

In recent years, domestic octanol production capacity has grown at a rapid rate, which has increased the domestic self-sufficiency rate and exacerbated the degree of fierce market competition. With the increase in domestic production capacity, the import volume gradually declined in 2010. In 2013, the import volume was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 16%. Imported products are mainly from North America and Western Europe, including producers of BASF, DOW, Eastman and Oxea Group. In 2013, China's output was about 910,000 tons, and the self-sufficiency rate reached 63%, which was nearly 10% higher than in 2009.

Due to the fact that China's fermentation process accounts for 285,000 tons/year, the annual production of these devices is very low, and its influence on the market is limited. N-butanol on the market is mainly derived from oxo synthesis. This part of the production capacity currently (in October 2014) has reached 1.525 million tons/year, and the average n-butanol plant average utilization rate is only about 70%. The pace of domestic capacity building has not yet stopped. In 2015, it will reach 1.8 million to 1.98 million tons/year. According to the company's announced construction plan, it will reach 2.35 million tons/year in 2020.

In the consumption of iso-octanol, the areas of DOP plasticizer restrictions at home and abroad are concentrated in food, food, medicine and toys. The consumption of PVC in China will continue to maintain a rapid development trend. It is expected that the growth rate of consumption in 2015-2020 will be slower than the previous period, which is about 5.5%. In the United States, Europe, and Northeast Asia (Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, China), due to the ban on plasticizer DOP or end-user application of other plasticizer products, it is expected that the demand for octanol will not increase, or the demand will decline.

Judging from the balance between supply and demand, China’s output has gradually increased and imports have gradually declined. In 2013, China’s imports amounted to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 23.4%, a significant drop. In 2013, China’s production was 900,000 tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year.

The operating rate of domestic iso-octanol plant was only 60% in 2013. Many companies were limited by raw material prices and product prices. The production of equipment was in a series of losses. Some plants entered the half-production phase, and individual plants had been shut down. The production capacity of isooctanol will reach 1.93 million to 2.03 million tons/year in 2015, and will reach 2.16 million tons/year in 2020.

According to the forecast of China's consumption demand for octanol and domestic production capacity plans, the large-scale expansion plan of octanol in China will fundamentally change the market structure of octanol in China, and it will be in a pattern of excess supply by 2020. Taking into account the volume of imported products, the operating rate of domestic equipment will still be difficult to recover, and is expected to be between 60% and 75%.