February's Boom Is the Weakest in Three Years
The BHI index reveals a three-stage pattern, with the first two months marking a "low point" or "ice valley," followed by a quick rebound between March and April, which then begins to decline again.
"In January and February, aside from the New Year holiday that boosted sales and some early spring promotions, most of the time was either off-season or during vacation, leading to very low activity," said Mr. Cao, a floor distributor in Nanjing. According to BHI data, the index dropped to 77.90 in February—its lowest since the index was established and the lowest in three years. This sharp decline is largely due to the Spring Festival, as many building materials and home decor stores across the country were closed or operating at minimal capacity, causing a significant drop in economic activity.
March and April See a Strong Rebound
Starting in March, the home market began to show signs of recovery. The BHI index increased for the first time this year, rising by 9.78% compared to the previous month. In April, it surged even more, climbing 26.25%. These two months marked the peak of the home market in the first half of the year.
"March was the first month where the market stopped declining. Many families were in the planning stage of renovations or starting their projects, so they hadn't made purchases yet," explained Qu Zhi, secretary-general of the Nanjing Decorative Materials Trade Association. "By April, renovation activities picked up, leading to a significant increase in sales."
The reporter also noted that the strong performance in March and April was partly due to the release of real estate demand. "The five property control policies have had a major impact on the building materials market," Qu Zhi added.
May BHI Rises Less Than Expected
Despite the strong performance in March and April, May did not live up to expectations. While the home market remained active, the pace of growth slowed significantly.
The BHI for May was 109.11, up 1.17 points from the previous month but down 1.37 points year-over-year—a smaller increase than anticipated. "Initially, most buyers were optimistic about May, with the manager confidence index reaching 191.16, suggesting a sharp rise. However, the actual BHI only saw a modest increase, signaling that the real estate market’s release phase is nearing its end," said Qin Zhanxue, executive vice president of the China Building Materials Circulation Association.
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