Although the expansion of the trade surplus has made foreign demand contribute to GDP, experts say that the bank's exchange rate has recently fallen to 50%, and the depreciation of the renminbi continues to be under pressure. Therefore, "stable exchange rate requires more stable economy." From the perspective of monetary policy, promoting domestic demand, especially investment, will be even more important. It is expected that there will still be a 25 basis point rate cut in the second quarter of the second quarter.
The recessionary surplus has intensified the stability of the economy and still needs the central bank to act
In the dual role of a sharp increase in exports and a decline in imports, the monthly trade surplus in February reached a new high. The trade deficit in the same period last year was 137.3 billion yuan. Previously, the trade surplus in January was 366.9 billion yuan, and the people's livelihood called it a "recessionary surplus." Therefore, the “recessionary surplus†in February has exacerbated the situation.
Although the trade surplus makes foreign demand contribute to economic GDP, it does not mean a change in the external demand situation. Zhang Jun, head of macroeconomic research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said: “Trade data is often not affected by the Spring Festival factors. The weakening of global economic growth and the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on a valid exchange rate. The negative impact on exports should not be underestimated.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, also pointed out that the sharp rise in export data does not represent a significant improvement in the foreign trade situation. The higher growth rate in February was mainly due to the lower base in the same period last year.
Customs data also showed that after the seasonal adjustment method to eliminate the Spring Festival factor, imports and exports fell by 7.2% year-on-year in the first two months of 2015, with exports increasing by only 1.2% and imports falling by 17.3%. The sharp drop in imports means that the total economic demand is still weak.
Cao Yang, a senior macro analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, believes that although the high trade surplus has made foreign demand contribute to GDP, it will also help the RMB exchange rate stabilize. However, "we have observed that the bank's exchange rate has recently dropped to 50%, and the dollar's exchange rate has also put pressure on the renminbi. Therefore, 'stable exchange rate, more need to stabilize the economy'. From the perspective of monetary policy, promoting domestic demand, especially investment will More importantly, this will improve the views of domestic and foreign investors on the Chinese economic outlook."
Cao Yang expects that there will still be a 25 basis point rate cut in the second quarter of the second quarter. It is also necessary to reduce the RRR and increase the base currency through the currency control tools such as PSL (mortgage supplementary loan). At the same time, fiscal policy will be more active, by revitalizing the stock of financial funds.
Tian Yun, secretary general of the China Strategic Thinking Bank, also believes that exports are still higher than imports, indicating that internal demand is very poor. "The export is to the limit, and the output of excess capacity has reached its limit. The key is to increase domestic demand. In addition, the RMB index is still rising, which is not conducive to the foreign trade situation."
Tian Yun predicted that the two sessions will prejudge the current difficult situation and situation, and a series of policies will be introduced. If GDP growth is to be guaranteed, it is a basic move to cut interest rates, lower the RRR, and increase infrastructure.
Increased capital outflow pressure
The surplus is high, generally representing the expectation of exchange rate appreciation, and the increase in foreign exchange holdings that the central bank continues to offset against foreign exchange, but China is now in the opposite situation.
The trade surplus reached a record high, but the data showed that at the end of January 2015, the foreign exchange of financial institutions decreased by 108.261 billion yuan from the end of December. In December 2014, the foreign exchange holdings of financial institutions decreased by 118.365 billion yuan. In 2014, the foreign exchange holdings of financial institutions increased by 778.663 billion yuan in 2014, a significant drop of 72% year-on-year.
In terms of exchange rate, the renminbi has weakened since the beginning of November last year. After entering 2015, it has plunged continuously. As of the end of last week, the spot exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar depreciated by nearly 2.5%. And the market generally expects that the RMB will depreciate moderately at present and in the future.
In this regard, Minsheng Macro believes that the main reason is that the European Central Bank implemented quantitative easing policy and the further strengthening of the US dollar. In addition, the domestic economy is weak, the net settlement of domestic micro-subjects is significantly reduced, short-term speculative capital outflows increase, and capital outflows have certain pressure.
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