Abstract I. Basic Situation of Industrial Economic Operation in the First Half of the Year Since the beginning of this year, China's industrial economy has been generally stable, and structural adjustment has been solidly promoted. However, due to overcapacity, insufficient effective demand, especially the shrinking of external demand, the downward pressure has increased. Advancing structural adjustment...
　　 I. Basic situation of industrial economic operation in the first half of the year
Since the beginning of this year, China's industrial economy has been generally stable, and structural adjustment has been solidly promoted. However, due to factors such as overcapacity, insufficient effective demand, especially the shrinking of external demand, the downward pressure has been increased, and the task of promoting structural adjustment has become more urgent and arduous. The current main operating characteristics are as follows:
Industrial production is basically stable. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.3% in the first half of the year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points over the same period of last year. Despite the adverse factors such as the weak external demand, the growth rate of industrial production has slowed down, but it is a relatively high level of growth compared with developed countries and emerging economies. In addition, from the continuous quarterly operation, from the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the quarterly growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 9.5%, 9.1%, 10%, 9.5% and 9.1%, respectively. The growth was generally stable. There are big fluctuations and ups and downs. In terms of industries, in the 41 major industrial sectors counted by the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 24 industries in the first half of the year with a growth rate of over 9.5%, of which 18 industries grew at a rate of more than 10%.
Corporate profits have shown a recovery. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the total industrial profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% over the same period last year. The operating income margin was 5.4%, a slight decrease from the same period last year. According to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit of the main activity of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the profit margin of the main activity was 5.83%. Among the 41 major industrial sectors, the profit of the main activities of 30 industries increased compared with the same period of last year. Two industries turned losses into profits, and the losses of one industry decreased year-on-year. Only the profit of the main activities of eight industries decreased compared with the same period of last year.
Structural adjustment is actively promoted. The development of high-tech industries is in good shape. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech industries increased by 11.6% year-on-year, faster than the growth rate of all industries above designated size by 2.3 percentage points. The proportion of investment in technological transformation has increased. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the national industrial technology transformation investment of 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.7%, faster than industrial fixed assets investment of 5.3 percentage points, technological transformation investment accounted for 42.2% of industrial investment, The year-on-year increase was 1.9 percentage points. Actively promote energy-saving technological transformation and energy efficiency benchmarking of key industries, and the value-added energy consumption of industrial units above designated size fell faster than expected. Continue to increase the governance of some overcapacity industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, and flat glass. Release and decompose and implement the target of eliminating backward production capacity in 19 industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement in 2013. The integration of the two depths has shown initial results. The industry's independent innovation capability has been significantly improved. The Tiangong-1 and Shenzhou-10 manned missions have been successfully completed. The navigation and control distance of the Chang'e-2 satellite has exceeded 50 million kilometers. The coordination of regional development was further enhanced. In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of the central and western regions increased by 10% and 10.5% respectively, which was faster than the eastern region by 1.3 and 1.8 percentage points respectively.
The role of information consumption in driving economic growth has been further enhanced. In the first half of the year, the scale of information consumption reached 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.8%. The national telecom industry achieved a total of 687 billion yuan in telecom services, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%; the revenue from telecom services was 564.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. The total number of telephone users increased by 58.46 million to 1.45 billion. Software business revenue was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%. The mobile Internet has developed rapidly, and the emerging information consumption has grown rapidly. The number of WeChat users reached 490 million, driving mobile Internet traffic revenue to grow by 56.8%. The overall market size of e-commerce reached 5 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.3%. Sales of smartphones and smart TVs all increased by more than 25%. The investment in telecommunications infrastructure was 129.7 billion yuan, and the number of TD-LTE technology test cities expanded to 15. The weak links in the industry chain made breakthroughs, and the quality of LTE terminals reached the international advanced level. At present, information consumption has gradually become a hot spot and bright spot in the market, and its pulling effect in China's economic growth has become increasingly prominent.
The impact of weak external demand has increased. Under the influence of the overall slow recovery of the world economy, the increase of international trade protectionism and the passive appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the growth rate of China's industrial products exports has slowed down noticeably. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the export delivery value of China's above-scale industries increased by only 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the first quarter increased by 6.2%, and the fourth, fifth and sixth months increased by only 3.1%, 3.5% and 2.1% respectively. According to estimates, in the first half of the year, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size fell by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the impact of exports was close to 60%.
Under the complicated and severe international situation and the obvious increase in domestic transformation, China's industrial economy has been operating in a reasonable growth range since this year. The structural adjustment has been steadily progressing, and the transformation and upgrading have been steadily improved. The achievements have not been easy. However, the current situation facing industrial development is still complicated.
First, the contradiction between insufficient effective demand and overcapacity is highlighted. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment fell month by month. Although the growth rate of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year reached 10.4%, the growth rate in the second quarter was only 3.9%, of which only 1% in May and 3.1% in June. The foreign trade situation is deteriorating. Insufficient effective demand has led to further overcapacity in the industrial sector. According to the latest survey data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the average industrial capacity utilization rate at the end of the second quarter was only 78.6%, and the idle capacity was as high as 21.4%. Under the influence of overcapacity, the contradiction between oversupply of products has intensified, and downward pressure on prices has continued to increase. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial producers fell by 2.2% year-on-year, which has been falling for 16 consecutive months.
Second, the difficulties in production and operation of enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises, are still relatively large. Despite the improvement in the profitability of industrial enterprises, the difficulties in production and operation are still outstanding due to the double squeeze of the increase in production comprehensive costs and the decline in product ex-factory prices. In the first half of the year, the average cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size accounted for 85.63 yuan, up 0.38 yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of profit from the main activities showed a month-on-month decline, with June falling by 2.3% from the same period last year. The corporate loss was 16.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The small and micro-sized enterprises with large scales are more difficult to operate. They face old problems such as difficulty in financing, heavy burden, and low level of development. They also have new problems such as difficult transformation, fewer orders, and rising labor costs. In July, China's small-scale manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.4%, which has been running below the 50% threshold for 16 consecutive months since April last year.
Third, the problem of insufficient investment in industrial restructuring has become more prominent. With the deepening of China's industrialization process, the marginal effect of factor input will continue to weaken. China's industry has entered a critical stage that must rely on innovation to drive, accelerate transformation and upgrading, and improve total factor productivity to achieve sustainable and healthy development. However, in recent years, the R&D investment intensity of industrial enterprises above designated size has been hovering in the low range of 0.6%-0.7%, and there is still a big gap compared with the level of 3%-4% in developed countries. The sales revenue of new products accounts for the main business. The proportion of business income has also declined, highlighting the insufficient investment in structural adjustment in China.
At present, the contradictions and difficulties faced by China's industrial development are not only the impact of short-term factors such as market changes and economic cycle adjustment, but also the concentrated reflection of medium- and long-term problems such as extensive development methods, insufficient innovation capabilities, and imperfect institutional mechanisms. In order to resolve various contradictions and difficulties in industrial operation, we must base ourselves on the current and long-term perspective. While actively cultivating new economic growth points such as information consumption and maintaining stable industrial growth, we must pay more attention to the use of the current society as a whole. The favorable opportunity for the consensus on importance, necessity and urgency has been greatly enhanced. By adjusting the structure and promoting reforms, the power and vitality of industrial development will be continuously enhanced, and the long-term healthy development of the industrial economy will be promoted.
   Second, the outlook of industrial operation throughout the year
On the whole, the overall development of China's industry is good. The further advancement of industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization will provide a broad market space for expanding domestic demand and developing the real economy. The State Council will accelerate the reform of various fields to further release the “reform dividend†in promoting industrial development and industrial development in China. The role of the upgraded version. At the same time, we must also see that there are still many uncertainties at home and abroad, and China's industrial development is also facing many difficulties and challenges. It is necessary to make great efforts to maintain stable economic development and comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of industrial development.
From an international perspective, the world economy is still in the process of deep adjustment. The international development environment is still very complicated and uncertain factors are increasing. The export situation of China's industrial products is still grim in the second half of the year. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has improved on some economic indicators, showing a moderate recovery, but its unemployment rate is still at a relatively high level of 7.6%, industrial recovery is still unstable, coupled with the impact of the implementation of the reduction plan, economic recovery The uncertainty still exists. The euro zone economy is still struggling in the quagmire, the employment situation is deteriorating, the manufacturing industry continues to weaken, and the economy has shrunk for four consecutive quarters. It is difficult to change in the short term. Stimulated by the ultra-loose monetary policy, the Japanese economy has recently improved slightly, but its credit risk and political risk are accelerating, which will pose a huge challenge to the sustainability of economic growth. The economic growth rate of emerging economies has generally slowed down, but the price increase has been higher and the risk of stagflation has been increasing. Recently, international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the OECD and the United Nations have lowered their growth forecasts for the world economy in 2013 from the previous period. The recovery of the world economy in the short term is difficult to change. At the same time, in the case of weak global economic growth, the competition in the international market has become more intense. In order to alleviate the employment pressure and protect the local industry, some countries are implementing trade protection protection measures in various ways, and trade protectionism has It is characterized by increasing diversification and normalization. Finally, the proliferation of liquidity caused by quantitative easing monetary policy on a global scale, while increasing the potential risks of global inflation and asset bubbles, has also significantly increased the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In the first half of the year, the RMB against the US dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen. The appreciation of the RMB 1.7%, 3.3%, and 16.7% respectively led to a rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which led to a significant decline in the traditional competitive advantage of China's export products. According to the Ministry of Commerce's survey of 1900 key foreign trade enterprises across the country, the leading indicators of export orders index and confidence index have declined for several consecutive months. The export situation in the second half of the year is still not optimistic.
From the domestic perspective, although the current industrial development faces some problems and difficulties, China's industry is still in a period of significant strategic opportunities, expanding the potential of domestic demand, rapid development of new consumer formats such as information consumption, and a series of reform measures such as decentralization and decentralization. The emergence of the effect will become an important support for the steady development of China's industry in the second half of the year.
Consumption is expected to continue to maintain steady growth, but the decline in household income growth will affect the release of consumption potential. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society increased by 12.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.7 percentage points over the same period of last year, but it was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Among them, the month of June increased by 13.3%, and the growth rate of consumption has shown a slight rebound from month to month. With the continuous upgrading of the consumption structure, the high-end consumer demand for information products continues to expand. The infrastructure and policy environment that supports the growth of information consumption are also constantly optimized, and information consumption is expected to continue to grow rapidly. In addition, the good situation in the job market this year will further support the steady growth of consumption. But at the same time, there are also some factors that constrain consumption expansion. In the first half of the year, China's urban and rural residents' income deducting price factors increased by 6.5% and 9.7% respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 3.2 percentage points over the same period of last year. The slowdown in household income growth will reduce residents' willingness and ability to consume. At the same time, with the successive withdrawal of policies such as home appliances to the countryside and energy-saving products to benefit the people, China's consumption growth will rely more on endogenous power support, and it is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term. On the whole, the growth rate of consumption in the second half of the year may continue to maintain a steady growth trend.
A series of measures such as the country's increased infrastructure will reverse the trend of investment growth falling month by month. In the first half of the year, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 20.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter, and still maintained a relatively high growth level. Along with the cancellation and decentralization of enterprise investment project approval, increase financial support for the development of the real economy and small and micro enterprises, encourage private capital to enter monopoly industries, increase investment in technological transformation of enterprises, promote the reform of railway investment and financing system, and accelerate railway construction. With the implementation of the policy, investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly. However, in the scale of investment in fixed assets of the whole society, the total investment of newly started projects is only up 15.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate is down 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the decline in future investment growth momentum. At the same time, due to factors such as overcapacity and the decline in corporate profitability, the growth momentum of manufacturing investment is insufficient. Subject to the decline in financing capacity of local financing platforms and the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure, the growth rate of investment in infrastructure construction may fall back. Real estate investment also has no obvious driving force to accelerate growth. On the whole, the investment structure in the second half of the year will be further optimized, and the growth rate of investment may show a steady decline.
On the whole, China's industrial economy is facing certain downward pressure, but it still has the basic conditions to maintain overall stability. It will continue to operate in a reasonable growth range in the second half of the year, and should seize the important time window of this structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. Reinforce the structure, promote transformation, and strive to improve the quality and efficiency of growth.
    Third, the key industry operations and development trends
From the main management categories of the industry, the main industry operating characteristics and trends are as follows:
Raw material industry. Affected by factors such as real estate investment and infrastructure investment, raw material industrial production remained stable overall, but affected by overcapacity, market competition intensified, product prices fell, and corporate profitability declined. According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 10.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with the first and second quarters increasing by 10.2% and 10% respectively. In June, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 10.1% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the monthly growth rate has stabilized in the range of 9.9% to 10.3%. In the first half of the year, the raw materials industry realized a total profit of 492.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%; the income margin was 3.7%, down 0.1 percentage point year-on-year; the loss side was 17.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The operation in the second half was basically stable. Although the fixed asset investment of the whole society has shown a month-to-month decline since the beginning of this year, it has remained at a relatively high level of over 20%. In the first half of the year, the investment in the raw materials industry with obvious infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 25.3%, and real estate development investment increased by 20.3%, 0.1 percentage points faster than the first quarter. The implementation of the affordable housing project and the strategic emerging industry development plan will increase demand for raw materials such as steel, building materials and new metal materials. In the second half of the year, the raw materials industry has the basic conditions for maintaining overall smooth operation. At the same time, the overcapacity of industries such as steel, cement, flat glass and electrolytic aluminum is prominent. The implementation of policies and measures such as air pollution prevention and control has made the task of transforming development mode and eliminating backward production capacity in some industries more urgent and arduous. On the whole, it is expected that the raw material industry will continue its overall stable development trend, and the growth rate of industrial added value in the second half of the year may fall back from the first half of the year.
Due to the accelerated release of production capacity and insufficient demand, the steel industry is facing difficulties in operation. In the first half of the year, China's cumulative production of crude steel was 390 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 2.15 million tons. According to this level, the annual crude steel output is expected to reach 790 million tons, and the crude steel daily output level remains high. Steel social inventories are still at a high level. At the end of June, the social stock of steel in the main markets of the country was 15.46 million tons, down 6.7% from the previous month. Although it has continued to fall for three consecutive months, it still rose by 30.2% compared with the beginning of the year. Steel prices continue to decline. At the beginning of this year, steel prices continued their upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year, showing a volatility upward trend. However, due to factors such as sluggish demand and rapid release of production capacity, the domestic steel price index continued to fall after reaching 111.1 points in late February. The decline was significantly accelerated, and the decline in ore cost support after June slowed down. At the end of June, the domestic steel price index was 98.5 points, the lowest point in recent years. Corporate profits have fallen month by month. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first half of the year, 77 member steel companies achieved a profit of 2.27 billion yuan, an increase of 30.4% (a year-on-year decline of 94.3%). The average sales profit margin is only 0.13%; the loss is 41%. From the monthly situation, the profit for the three months of March, April and May was 270 million yuan, 150 million yuan and 150 million yuan respectively. In June, the net loss was 69 million yuan. It is difficult to change the short-term operation. In the second half of the year, the demand for domestic steel is obviously less likely to change. In the case of global oversupply and trade frictions in the steel industry, the difficulty of steel exports will continue to increase, and the demand in the steel industry will be difficult to improve. With the accelerated release of steel production capacity, the daily output of crude steel continues to be high, and steel inventories are still at a relatively high level. The contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market is difficult to reverse in the short term. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the decline in steel prices has been much faster than the decline in raw material costs. The pressure on the operating costs of steel companies has not diminished, and the difficulty in improving economic efficiency has been increasing.
The growth rate of production in the non-ferrous industry has slowed down markedly, the benefits have declined significantly, and the operating situation is still not optimistic. In the first half of the year, the added value of the non-ferrous industry increased by 12.1% year-on-year and 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. Among the main products, the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 19.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%; among them, electrolytic copper production increased by 12.9% and electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.9%. The import volume of copper products fell, and the import volume of aluminum products fell. In the first half of the year, imports of unwrought copper and copper were 2 million tons, down 20%, and the decline was 8.9 percentage points lower than the first quarter. Imported unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials were 387,000 tons, down 37% year-on-year. The decline was 8.6 percentage points lower than the first quarter. Non-ferrous metals prices fluctuate at low levels. Since the beginning of this year, due to the slow recovery of the world economy, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the withdrawal of speculative funds, the price of non-ferrous metals has continued to fluctuate at a low level and has fallen to a low level in recent years. At the end of June, the three-month futures prices of copper, aluminum and zinc in the Shanghai market closed at 48,580 yuan/ton, 14,215 yuan/ton and 14,420 yuan/ton, respectively, down 6,250 yuan, 430 yuan and 380 yuan respectively from the end of the first quarter. The decline in profits has widened. In the first half of the year, the profit of the non-ferrous industry decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 9.4 percentage points higher than that of the first quarter. The profit rate of the main business income was 3.17%, down 0.96 percentage points year-on-year; the corporate loss was 21.2%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. At present, China's non-ferrous industries have excess smelting capacity, insufficient mine support capacity, and a shortage of high value-added processing products, which are generally at the low end of the international industrial chain. At the same time, the constraints on resources, energy and environment are further strengthened. In addition, the production and operation costs of enterprises are high. It is expected that the growth rate of production in the non-ferrous industry in the second half of the year may be further slightly adjusted, and the profitability will be difficult to change. The overall situation is still in a low-profit state.
The building materials industry will further increase structural adjustment while continuing the steady growth trend. In the first half of the year, the added value of the building materials industry increased by 12.1%, and the growth rate was the same as that of the same period last year. The building materials industry and deep processing industry continued to maintain rapid growth. In the first half of the year, although the growth rate of the building materials products industry and deep processing industries also declined from the rapid growth in previous years, it still maintained rapid growth. The growth rate of production of traditional building materials industry has slowed down. Traditional industries such as cement and flat glass are affected by overcapacity and insufficient demand, and the growth rate of production has declined. In the first half of the year, cement production was 1.1 billion tons, up 9.7% year-on-year; flat glass was 390 million weight boxes, up 10
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