In a recent report released by the China Land Survey and Planning Institute on January 15, it was revealed that land prices in major Chinese cities remained largely stable throughout 2012, with only minor fluctuations. The overall trend reflected a cautious market environment, although there was a slight rebound toward the end of the year. Residential land prices showed a gradual decline over the course of the year, with slower growth rates observed in each quarter compared to previous years. Experts predict that urban land prices will see a modest increase in 2013.
According to the data, at the end of 2012, the average land price across the monitored cities stood at 3,129 yuan per square meter. Specifically, commercial land averaged 5,843 yuan per square meter, residential land was at 4,620 yuan, and industrial land came in at 670 yuan. Compared to the same period in the previous year, these figures saw increases of 3.34%, 2.26%, and 2.70% respectively. Notably, the annual growth rate for both commercial and residential land was among the lowest in the past decade, slightly exceeding that of 2008. Residential land experienced the smallest cumulative increase compared to the other two categories.
Out of the 105 major cities monitored, more than 80% saw a year-on-year increase in residential land prices of less than 5%. However, 27 cities reported lower residential land prices than the previous year. In the fourth quarter, the quarterly growth rates for overall, residential, and industrial land were 1.12%, 1.21%, and 1.14% respectively—slightly higher than the previous quarter, with increases of 0.34, 0.29, and 0.67 percentage points.
Regionally, land prices continued to reflect an eastern high, western low pattern. However, the western region saw a rising growth rate, surpassing the central region in recent years and even ranking first among the three regions at times. The report attributes this to weak local economic conditions and insufficient infrastructure development, as well as reduced investment and capital migration from the area.
The report also highlighted that the number of abnormal land transactions and premium levels in 2012 reached their lowest point since regulatory measures were introduced, indicating a relatively stable land market. A total of 275 cases of abnormal transactions were recorded in 2012, down sharply from 609 in 2011. Additionally, the average premium rate fell by 30 percentage points.
Looking ahead, the report predicts a slight rise in overall urban land prices in 2013. Commercial and residential land prices are expected to remain relatively stable, influenced by both economic support and regulatory constraints. According to Zhao Song, director of the China Land Survey and Planning Institute, attention should be given to policy needs and supply during the urbanization process. New opportunities in the real estate market will emerge, and new measures must be developed to adapt to economic restructuring and real estate regulation.
Furthermore, the impact of the monetary environment on the economy must be closely monitored. There is a need to address potential risks associated with liquidity reduction and prepare for financial risk control. Lastly, differentiated management strategies should be strengthened, with close attention to market signals such as house and land prices. Cities experiencing greater volatility should enhance land use restrictions and ensure that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are effectively implemented.
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