In a recent report released by the China Land Survey and Planning Institute on January 15, the trends in land prices across major Chinese cities in 2012 were analyzed. The data indicates that overall land prices remained relatively stable throughout the year, with only a slight rebound observed towards the end of 2012. Residential land prices saw a steady decline over the course of the year, with slower growth rates compared to previous periods. Looking ahead, it is expected that urban land prices will experience a modest increase in 2013.
According to the monitoring data, at the end of 2012, the average land price in major cities nationwide stood at 3,129 yuan per square meter. Specifically, commercial land averaged 5,843 yuan/sq m, residential land was at 4,620 yuan/sq m, and industrial land reached 670 yuan/sq m. Compared to the same period in 2011, these prices rose by 3.34%, 2.26%, and 2.70% respectively. Notably, the year-on-year growth for commercial and residential land was among the lowest in the past decade, slightly higher than the 2008 level, while residential land showed the smallest annual increase among the three categories.
Out of the 105 monitored cities, more than 80% experienced a year-on-year increase in residential land prices within a 5% range, though 27 cities reported lower prices than the previous year. In the fourth quarter, the quarterly growth rates for overall, residential, and industrial land prices were 1.12%, 1.21%, and 1.14% respectively, showing a slight upward trend compared to the previous quarter.
Regionally, land prices continued to show a pattern where eastern regions maintained higher levels, while western regions had lower prices. However, the growth rate in the western region remained consistently above the central region's pace, even topping the national average at times before settling back below it. The report attributes this to weak local economic conditions and insufficient policy support, with large investments declining and capital gradually shifting out of the area.
The report also highlighted that the number of abnormal land transactions and premium levels in 2012 were at their lowest since the implementation of regulatory measures, indicating a stable land market with limited irrational speculation. A total of 275 abnormal transactions were reported in 2012, a significant decrease from 609 in 2011, and the average premium rate dropped by 30 percentage points.
Looking forward, the report suggests that urban land prices are expected to rise slightly in 2013. Commercial and residential land prices are likely to remain stable, influenced by both economic support and regulatory controls. According to Zhao Song, Director of the China Land Survey and Planning Institute, attention should be given to policy needs and supply during the urbanization process. The real estate market is expected to see new opportunities as urbanization progresses, requiring new measures to adapt to economic restructuring and real estate regulation.
Furthermore, the impact of monetary policy on the economy must be closely monitored, with early consideration given to the risks of liquidity weakening and its effect on the real estate market. Finally, differentiated management strategies should be strengthened, with close attention to signals like house and land prices. Cities experiencing greater fluctuations should enhance land use supervision mechanisms to ensure that policies aimed at stabilizing land supply and curbing abnormal price increases are effectively implemented.
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