The "two-alkali" (soda ash, caustic soda) industry that has performed well in the first half of this year seems to have entered a turning point. Even if the peak of electricity usage in summer comes, the limited voltage will be reproduced, and it is difficult for the market to replicate the economic conditions in the first half of the year. The reporter learned from a number of industry organizations yesterday that due to the recovery of Japan's chlor-alkali production capacity, the export prices of soda ash and caustic soda have recently fallen, and the outlook is not optimistic.
According to Li Wei, a researcher of China National Chemicals Network, the nationwide soda ash market has recently experienced a weaker downward trend. In some regions, power cuts have not caused much impact on the operating rate, and manufacturers have started normal operations.
“At present, there is no obvious power restriction policy in Shandong and the start of construction is relatively normal. However, the soda ash markets around the country have experienced a substantial decline recently. Under this pattern, it is difficult for the post-term electricity to have a substantial impact on the soda ash industry.†Information analyst Wang Hui told this reporter.
It is worth noting that in order to change the situation of falling prices, the recently held soda ash area meeting even proposed "limited production and price protection" measures.
According to Li Wei, the meeting proposed to limit production by 15%, so that the price of light alkali is maintained at 2,200 yuan / ton, and the price of heavy alkali is maintained at 2,300 yuan / ton. However, according to her understanding, the price of light alkali in Shandong has actually dropped to 2100-2150 yuan / ton, and the price of heavy alkali is 2200 yuan / ton.
“Considering that the short-term maintenance of manufacturers in July and August may cause tight supply and prices may fluctuate slightly, but overall, the current market is already weak compared with the market's soaring in May.†Say.
As for caustic soda, the domestic caustic soda market in the first half of 2011 rose almost all the way, with a half-year increase of 22.3%. The reason is mainly due to the large amount of domestic caustic soda exports after the earthquake in Japan. At the same time, power cuts have also played a role in fueling price increases.
“But the current Japanese shutdown plant has begun to resume production, and the export price of caustic soda has started to decline, which has a particularly large impact on Shandong and Jiangsu.†Li Wei said that Shandong Haihua's price of caustic soda has been reduced by RMB 20/t from the previous period, although it was passed again in China. Information on electricity restrictions has been issued, but the intensity has been limited. In addition, most chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong have their own power plants, with limited impact.
In her view, with the continued investment in new domestic capacity, the market will start to saturate. The domestic price of caustic soda has fallen, and it is expected that prices will continue to decline in the later period.
“The current caustic soda market is very bad, and it has been in a downtrend channel since July. At present, unless it is a large-scale power cut, it will have limited impact on the industry.†said Zhuo Xueliang, a caustic soda analyst at Zhuo Chong, told this reporter. .
He believes that the shrinking of downstream demand is an important factor affecting the price of caustic soda. “Compared to May, the current chemical fiber, textile and papermaking industries are all in the traditional off-season, and their upstream support is insufficient. Plus, the production capacity of Japanese chlor-alkali manufacturers has returned to the pre-earthquake period. The level will cause the export market to fall. In this case, the electricity restriction will not lead to a significant reduction in the supply, and the impact of power restriction will gradually decrease after entering in August."
According to Li Wei, a researcher of China National Chemicals Network, the nationwide soda ash market has recently experienced a weaker downward trend. In some regions, power cuts have not caused much impact on the operating rate, and manufacturers have started normal operations.
“At present, there is no obvious power restriction policy in Shandong and the start of construction is relatively normal. However, the soda ash markets around the country have experienced a substantial decline recently. Under this pattern, it is difficult for the post-term electricity to have a substantial impact on the soda ash industry.†Information analyst Wang Hui told this reporter.
It is worth noting that in order to change the situation of falling prices, the recently held soda ash area meeting even proposed "limited production and price protection" measures.
According to Li Wei, the meeting proposed to limit production by 15%, so that the price of light alkali is maintained at 2,200 yuan / ton, and the price of heavy alkali is maintained at 2,300 yuan / ton. However, according to her understanding, the price of light alkali in Shandong has actually dropped to 2100-2150 yuan / ton, and the price of heavy alkali is 2200 yuan / ton.
“Considering that the short-term maintenance of manufacturers in July and August may cause tight supply and prices may fluctuate slightly, but overall, the current market is already weak compared with the market's soaring in May.†Say.
As for caustic soda, the domestic caustic soda market in the first half of 2011 rose almost all the way, with a half-year increase of 22.3%. The reason is mainly due to the large amount of domestic caustic soda exports after the earthquake in Japan. At the same time, power cuts have also played a role in fueling price increases.
“But the current Japanese shutdown plant has begun to resume production, and the export price of caustic soda has started to decline, which has a particularly large impact on Shandong and Jiangsu.†Li Wei said that Shandong Haihua's price of caustic soda has been reduced by RMB 20/t from the previous period, although it was passed again in China. Information on electricity restrictions has been issued, but the intensity has been limited. In addition, most chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong have their own power plants, with limited impact.
In her view, with the continued investment in new domestic capacity, the market will start to saturate. The domestic price of caustic soda has fallen, and it is expected that prices will continue to decline in the later period.
“The current caustic soda market is very bad, and it has been in a downtrend channel since July. At present, unless it is a large-scale power cut, it will have limited impact on the industry.†said Zhuo Xueliang, a caustic soda analyst at Zhuo Chong, told this reporter. .
He believes that the shrinking of downstream demand is an important factor affecting the price of caustic soda. “Compared to May, the current chemical fiber, textile and papermaking industries are all in the traditional off-season, and their upstream support is insufficient. Plus, the production capacity of Japanese chlor-alkali manufacturers has returned to the pre-earthquake period. The level will cause the export market to fall. In this case, the electricity restriction will not lead to a significant reduction in the supply, and the impact of power restriction will gradually decrease after entering in August."
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