Business Club July 14, News I. Market Review On July 13, 2011, the main contract of the major coke ** ** main contract J1109 opened at 2,304 yuan / ton, the highest probe to 2,313 points, all day closing at 2,310 yuan / ton, turnover The amount is 5,688 hands, the number of positions is 12,648, and the daily lighten up is 800 lots.
Spot electronic disk: Shanxi Jiaolian metallurgical coke deferred contract YJYS, 15:00 offer 2086, up 3 yuan / ton.
Second, the fundamental analysis From the perspective of the message:
(1) In 2011, coke will eliminate outdated production capacity of 19.75 million tons, which is slightly lower than the 25.685 million tons in 2010. However, the driving force for new production capacity is still high. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the 10th, saying that it has recently broken down the target of eliminating the backward production capacity of the industrial sector in 2011. Among them, coke involved production capacity of 19.75 million tons, involving 87 companies and 20 provinces.
(2) Luis Sarznelelli, coal industry consultant of Brazilian Sage Consultoria Tecnica Ltda, said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires that China will be transformed into the world's largest coking coal importing country by 2015, and will bring world coking coal prices Increase pressure. Demand from China may cause tight supply and will continue to increase coking coal prices in the next five years.
From the spot market:
The recent increase in coke purchases by the steel mills has given them a strong confidence in the development direction of the coke market in the later period. Tianjin Port has 1,854,600 tons of Qinhuangdao coal stocks at 7,380,000 tons; Qinhuangdao, 5,800 kcal coal, has a closing price of 900, and Linfen. The price of the main coke fine coal car plate is 1600, the price of the Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is 1930, and the Tianjin Port first-grade metallurgical coke is A<12%, S<0.6%, and the ex-factory price is 2050.
From the industry point of view:
From the perspective of the upstream thermal coal price, at present, the power plant coal inventory in East China is at a reasonably high level for more than 20 days, and the procurement of coal has slowed down. Due to the obvious weakening of demand in the domestic coastal thermal coal market, port coal prices have now fallen for the first time in nearly 4 months, and the comprehensive average price of the Bohai-Ring thermal coal price index has closed at 842 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of coking coal and coke prices, downstream steel demand has been released. In late June, the country’s crude steel production reached a record high of 2.02 million tons, and the steel mill production capacity has already reached its peak. At the same time, building materials stocks continued to decline, with the increase in demand mostly coming from the construction industry. Since the end of June, all localities have issued the latest conditions for the construction of affordable housing. Compared with the lower operating rate in the first half of the year, the data of the latest data has suddenly increased. Compared with only 30% of the nationwide operating rate in May, the latest figures released by many provinces show that “half of the time and more than half of the tasks have been achievedâ€. There are even provinces where the operating rate has reached more than 90%. Excluding the "moisture" contained in it, we may also expect that the construction of affordable housing has already accelerated significantly.
Third, the market outlook analysis of the North **: today's domestic commodity goods, red, coke main contract also opened low, finally closed Yang Xian, but the weakness is still, long and no interest in the transaction fully reflected in the volume, only 5688 hands traded all day, New low since listing. Investors wait and see.
Rui Da **: On Wednesday, the company continued to open with shocks, and it closed on the daily market but its trading volume shrank significantly. From the perspective of the average, the price is suppressed by the 10-day moving average and the technical pattern is still weak. From the change in positions, the top 20 net short positions in the main contract fell slightly. In operation, those who have already entered the stadium are holding more than one; those who are outside the stadium continue to wait and see.
Medium-term view: Continuous focus has rebounded slightly after gaining support above 2300 yuan. In the case of better-than-expected domestic macroeconomic data and a significant increase in the commodity market, the trend of coke continues to be weak. The recent increase in the operating rate of domestic housing has significantly increased, rebar ** increased significantly. As coke has a certain lag, the focus on downstream demand will trigger the price of coke.
Spot electronic disk: Shanxi Jiaolian metallurgical coke deferred contract YJYS, 15:00 offer 2086, up 3 yuan / ton.
Second, the fundamental analysis From the perspective of the message:
(1) In 2011, coke will eliminate outdated production capacity of 19.75 million tons, which is slightly lower than the 25.685 million tons in 2010. However, the driving force for new production capacity is still high. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the 10th, saying that it has recently broken down the target of eliminating the backward production capacity of the industrial sector in 2011. Among them, coke involved production capacity of 19.75 million tons, involving 87 companies and 20 provinces.
(2) Luis Sarznelelli, coal industry consultant of Brazilian Sage Consultoria Tecnica Ltda, said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires that China will be transformed into the world's largest coking coal importing country by 2015, and will bring world coking coal prices Increase pressure. Demand from China may cause tight supply and will continue to increase coking coal prices in the next five years.
From the spot market:
The recent increase in coke purchases by the steel mills has given them a strong confidence in the development direction of the coke market in the later period. Tianjin Port has 1,854,600 tons of Qinhuangdao coal stocks at 7,380,000 tons; Qinhuangdao, 5,800 kcal coal, has a closing price of 900, and Linfen. The price of the main coke fine coal car plate is 1600, the price of the Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is 1930, and the Tianjin Port first-grade metallurgical coke is A<12%, S<0.6%, and the ex-factory price is 2050.
From the industry point of view:
From the perspective of the upstream thermal coal price, at present, the power plant coal inventory in East China is at a reasonably high level for more than 20 days, and the procurement of coal has slowed down. Due to the obvious weakening of demand in the domestic coastal thermal coal market, port coal prices have now fallen for the first time in nearly 4 months, and the comprehensive average price of the Bohai-Ring thermal coal price index has closed at 842 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of coking coal and coke prices, downstream steel demand has been released. In late June, the country’s crude steel production reached a record high of 2.02 million tons, and the steel mill production capacity has already reached its peak. At the same time, building materials stocks continued to decline, with the increase in demand mostly coming from the construction industry. Since the end of June, all localities have issued the latest conditions for the construction of affordable housing. Compared with the lower operating rate in the first half of the year, the data of the latest data has suddenly increased. Compared with only 30% of the nationwide operating rate in May, the latest figures released by many provinces show that “half of the time and more than half of the tasks have been achievedâ€. There are even provinces where the operating rate has reached more than 90%. Excluding the "moisture" contained in it, we may also expect that the construction of affordable housing has already accelerated significantly.
Third, the market outlook analysis of the North **: today's domestic commodity goods, red, coke main contract also opened low, finally closed Yang Xian, but the weakness is still, long and no interest in the transaction fully reflected in the volume, only 5688 hands traded all day, New low since listing. Investors wait and see.
Rui Da **: On Wednesday, the company continued to open with shocks, and it closed on the daily market but its trading volume shrank significantly. From the perspective of the average, the price is suppressed by the 10-day moving average and the technical pattern is still weak. From the change in positions, the top 20 net short positions in the main contract fell slightly. In operation, those who have already entered the stadium are holding more than one; those who are outside the stadium continue to wait and see.
Medium-term view: Continuous focus has rebounded slightly after gaining support above 2300 yuan. In the case of better-than-expected domestic macroeconomic data and a significant increase in the commodity market, the trend of coke continues to be weak. The recent increase in the operating rate of domestic housing has significantly increased, rebar ** increased significantly. As coke has a certain lag, the focus on downstream demand will trigger the price of coke.
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